Believe What Propels You Forward

Not necessarily what is true.

“Whether you believe you can or you can’t, you’re right.”

- Henry Ford

You are what you believe. At any given moment, your behavior - how you show up and what you do - sprouts from some belief you hold. 

You put salt on your food because you believe it’ll make the food taste better. You unbutton your shirt or loosen your hair when you come home from a long day of work because you believe that your family will love you the same even when you look disheveled. You lift because you believe it will make you healthier and more attractive.

But not all beliefs are equal.

There are beliefs that we’re less confident about than others. For example, you may not be sure whether the new protein bar you just bought will be tasty, or whether the event you just signed up for will be worthwhile. In situations like these, you make a “guess” (also known as a “hypothesis”), and that guess becomes your belief until you prove yourself wrong.

Then there are other beliefs that we’re so sure about that we almost take for granted, like the “fact” that if I swing my baseball bat as hard as I can at the TV, it will break, and my roommate will be unhappy. We call these things “truths”, because we’ve acquired so much evidence to support them that believing otherwise would be stupid.

But all “truths” that involve interpretation are just beliefs. They may be educated, well-supported beliefs, but they’re still beliefs.

That swinging my baseball bat at the TV will cause it to break is not the truth. The truth is that the TV exists. The truth is that I’m holding a baseball bat. The truth is only what’s observable in the present moment. Everything else is a prediction.

This holds true even for natural sciences, which we use to make predictions about how the world works, and which many of us consider to be the source of all truth¹. We confidently take several things like gravity or bouyancy for granted because there exists a comprehensive explanation for these phenomena supported by a vast body of evidence, both from our own observations as well as the observations of others.

For example, we take it for granted that if we jump up, we’ll fall back down. But if you notice yourself falling back down after jumping, the truth is only that you’re currently falling down. That you’ll fall back down after jumping up again is just a prediction. But it’s such a well-supported and well-reasoned prediction that you naturally equate it to the “truth” (as you should).

I realize I’m being slightly pedantic about the definition of truth here. Especially in the context of the laws of physics, this seems like a waste of time. And it is, but only because the laws of physics are some of the most easily verifiable and widely supported predictions, and they have an objective* basis for truth.

You know what’s not easily verifiable and well supported though? Most of the things you believe about yourself and your place in this world. Here are a few examples:

• I don’t have what it takes to become a great software engineer.

• I’m out of her league.

• Grades are everything.

• I should pay off my student loans before I start a business.

• No one is going to invest in my coffee shop because the ROI will be low.

• AI is going to replace me in my job.

• It’s irresponsible to spend $400 on a pair of pants.

• You should always work hard.

Beliefs like these are ubiquitous, yet problematic - not because they’re necessarily wrong, but because we implicitly assume they’re right.

Aside from the fact that none of them are present-moment observations, they suffer from a host of problems that we should address before we decide whether to believe them. The first of these problems is vagueness. 

Some of these beliefs are immediately vague; What does a “great software engineer” entail? What does it mean to be in someone’s league? How exactly is AI going to replace you in your job?

Asking clarifying questions about your assumptions in this manner is important because it allows you to better assess the situation. Only when you identify the underlying characteristics of a “great software engineer” can you take steps to get there, and maybe you’ll realize that it’s not as hard as you initially believed it to be.

Not only do these beliefs use vague terms, they are also too general to be useful to any individual. This usually happens when we pick up beliefs from our environment without mapping them to our goals and values. 

Working hard certainly has a lot of merits, but there’s a limit to them, and sometimes it’s even counter-productive. For example, if you notice yourself unable to build muscle and you’re feeling fatigued during your 2 hour workouts everyday, cutting down on your exercise might be a better option for you than pushing even harder.

Similarly, whether it’s irresponsible to spend $400 on a pair of pants depends on your financial situation and goals. It’s only irresponsible if buying those pants takes you further away from the goals you’ve set for yourself. If buying a nice pair of pants brings you immense joy and does not harm anyone else, it is perfectly acceptable.

But perhaps the biggest problem these beliefs suffer from is that they’re based on flawed reasoning. What makes you think you’re out of that person’s league? 

One of the reasons might be self-protection; by believing that you’re unworthy, you shield yourself from the embarrassment of rejection². Another reason, one that I’ve found myself defaulting to quite a bit, is not having enough evidence of success. You believe you’re not in her league because you’ve been turned down by similar girls in in the past. 

This is a fatal mistake; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Just because you’ve never observed a certain outcome in the past doesn’t mean you never will in the future.

The point I’m trying to drive home is that most of the beliefs we hold about ourselves probably don’t align with reality, and yet we act as if they do. If we really wish to find the truth - aligning our model of the world with reality - we can start by scrutinizing, clarifying, and contextualizing our beliefs.

This is the approach I took initially. I grew up thinking that the truth is always of paramount importance, and I would tire myself out in its pursuit. Now, I’ve realized that seeking out the truth about ourselves is not only incredibly hard, it’s also a waste of time. I believe that when you’re trying to figure out how to act, think, and feel, the absolute truth matters much less than the beliefs you hold.

In physics, biology, computer science, or any other field of study, we try so hard to find the truth because these natural systems behave independently of our beliefs. A ping pong ball will always float on water, irrespective of whether you believe it will or not.

The same can’t be said about the conditions of your own life. Your beliefs are placebos. They’re inputs to your actions, so they influence the outcomes of your actions. This is essentially what (active) optimism is based on - it’s the underlying belief that you have the ability to bend an otherwise indifferent reality to your will. When you operate on this belief, your optimism leaks into all of your actions, and you start “manifesting” the conditions you want for yourself.

Manifestation isn’t just a woo-woo concept - it’s an actual phenomenon that neuroscientists have observed. James Doty defines it as “embedding your intentions into your subconscious”. This allows you to selectively pick out clues in your life that support your beliefs, thus making you more likely to act, think, and feel in accord with them.

If this sounds like cherry-picking to you, it is. That’s fine, because we’re not concerned about the truth here. This isn’t the scientific method, we’re not testing a hypothesis. We’re concerned about getting closer to our goals and being the person we want to be. We’re looking for a specific outcome, and doggedly collecting evidence in support of our beliefs helps us achieve that.

If you adopt the belief that you’ll be able to successfully start a coffee shop, you start subconsciously collecting environmental cues that suggest so. Each new piece of supporting “evidence” you collect boosts your confidence, not necessarily in the outcome being realized, but rather in the value of your pursuit. The more you start believing that what you’re pursuing is worthwhile, the better your efforts become. Over time, you start accumulating small wins as a result of your focused efforts. These small wins solidify your confidence in yourself even further, and the cycle continues until you eventually realize your goals. You literally make believe.

With that being said, there is a difference between being optimistic and being delusional. Being delusional is manufacturing evidence to support your beliefs, whereas being optimistic is simply noticing potentially neutral information that is already present and extracting positive cues from it. Being delusional is believing that everything will turn out great, whereas being optimistic is believing that we can make everything turn out great. This difference in agency is important - believing that the different pieces of the world will automatically fall in place just like you want them to will probably not get you very far.

There’s another way you can be delusional - by ignoring new information that obviously counters your beliefs. Beliefs should be loosely held and updated with new information. They’re not people, you don’t owe them any loyalty. If a belief no longer serves you, drop it.

Ultimately, our beliefs are the architects of our reality, and we should shape them in ways that serve us. This isn't about ignoring reality or embracing delusion. It's about deeply questioning what we perceive as "reality" and acknowledging that there's no easy way to prove or disprove the limits of our own agency.

In such ambiguous terrain, your beliefs effectively become your truth. And if it all comes down to beliefs, why not adopt ones that propel you forward?

1. Even the foundation of mathematics is a set of statements that are defined to be true.

2. Side note - by choosing to shield yourself from the embarrassment of rejection, you’re deciding that the pain of embarrassment in the present moment outweighs any potential benefits that striking up a conversation with that person might yield in the future.